A decision record
S15 on BTC
- Question
- the absolute perp-vs-index basis at T0 is at or above 50 basis points (|perp.basis_bps| ≥ 50) — the derivative is priced at least half a percent away from spot within the 24h window, a structural divergence.
- Horizon
- 24h
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 19:22:47 UTC
- Decision
- 41adfd9a…730e79
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 19:22:47 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 2000
- booked payment id
- 114337fe-fe6a-4c88-8187-5740158feff3
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- basis
Content hashes
- input
- eb498b55d74bfcac…
- state
- a401dfb39439489c…
- response
- 40510ccafb53a1ee…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- d611c4ba092bba1f0a065fd463a88705d5b657a989cf044cbe19d3e972f07112
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.