Entry
$1
1,000 credits
S01 Market regime, S05 Volatility expansion, S06 Funding anomaly
Reading is live · buying opens with the first settled purchase
A probability with a deadline.
Written before the outcome, settled in public.
Probabilities for crypto markets, wallets and transactions — for people and for agents. Every answer names its event and its window, is recorded before the outcome, and is settled in public.
- One question. One window. One price. One public outcome.
- Reading is free. Your first three entry questions are free.
- A question starts at one dollar, two dollars, or five. The dollar price rises on a published ladder as settled outcomes grow.
- When the data is too thin, you get a refusal and you are not charged.
A market opinion without a window cannot be checked.
Most market intelligence arrives without a definition, a window, or a record. You cannot check it, so you cannot learn from it. Tollbridge only sells a question that names a measurable event, a threshold, a window, and the data the outcome will be read from. The claim is frozen when you run it. The outcome is measured later from that same data. Both stay on a public record. A correction is a new entry, never an edit.
Not financial advice
A belief statement about a measurable event. No target, no trade, no recommendation. Every record carries the disclosure.
Not a prediction market
Nothing is wagered. There is no crowd price and no payout. The house states a probability and is graded.
Not an AI chat answer
A chat answer has no window, no price per judgment, and no memory of being wrong.
Not a data API
Data is the input. The product is the judgment, plus the record that makes it checkable.
One question. One window. One price. One public outcome.
Every answer carries six facts: the question, the window, the conditions, the confidence, the data age, and the model version. An answer without all six is not shipped. The outcome is one of three words: obtained, did not, or unresolvable. Unresolvable is not “no.”
01
The event is defined
The question names what has to happen, by when, and which data the outcome will be read from.
02
It can refuse
Stale data, a thin sample, or a tape that is not there yet returns the reason. You are not charged. A refusal never spends a free question.
03
You pay the price you were shown
Entry questions start at $1, a 24-hour window at $2, an account question at $5. The price on a decision already in progress holds.
04
The claim is frozen
It is written to an append-only history with its input identifier, its state identifier, and its model version, before the window closes.
05
The outcome is measured once
At the deadline, one worker reads the event from the same data and writes it next to the claim. The model is not asked again.
06
The series stays free to read
Past results for that question and asset stay public. A change in method shows up as a new model version, not a silent edit.
Eleven launch questions. One kind of answer.
Markets are the top perpetual futures on Hyperliquid by 24-hour volume, including BTC, ETH, and SOL. Wallet questions read a public Hyperliquid account, and the ask stays closed until you name one. A question is available when it has both an outcome reader and a live data source. 26 questions · 16 askable now · 7 waiting on an address · 3 not available yet (liquidation tape BTC 5/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 3/24)
S01 Market regime
60 minutes · $1
Which of four regimes the next hour is in: trending up, trending down, range compression, or range expansion. Exactly one lands.
Available · starts at $1
S05 Volatility expansion
60 minutes · $1
Whether realized volatility over the next hour runs 1.5× its own 24-hour baseline.
Available · starts at $1
S06 Funding anomaly
60 minutes · $1
Whether the next funding print lands at 3× the trailing seven-day median rate. Unresolvable — not false — if no settlement lands in the window.
Available · starts at $1
S07 Funding persistence
24 hours · $2
Whether an extreme funding rate holds its sign for three consecutive settlements.
Available · starts at $2
S08 Open-interest anomaly
24 hours · $2
Whether open interest moves 3σ against its own 24-hour rhythm.
Available · starts at $2
S09 Wallet accumulation
24 hours · $5
Whether a tracked Hyperliquid account ends the day holding a long worth a quarter of its equity. You name the account first. Nothing is charged until the address is set.
Available once you name an account · starts at $5
S10 Wallet distribution
24 hours · $5
Whether a tracked Hyperliquid account ends the day holding a short worth a quarter of its equity. You name the account first. Nothing is charged until the address is set.
Available once you name an account · starts at $5
S11 Transaction risk
60 minutes · $5
Whether an account sits at allow, review, or block by liquidation proximity and account size. You name the account first. Nothing is charged until the address is set.
Available once you name an account · starts at $5
S02 Liquidation risk
60 minutes
Whether liquidation velocity reaches twice its 24-hour median.
Not available yet — the tape is still being recorded: hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 5/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 3/24. This question turns on by itself when the tape is there. A request returns a clear “no decision” and returns your credits.
S03 Long squeeze
60 minutes
Whether long-side liquidations reach twice their hourly median.
Not available yet — the tape is still being recorded: hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 5/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 3/24. This question turns on by itself when the tape is there. A request returns a clear “no decision” and returns your credits.
S04 Short squeeze
60 minutes
Whether short-side liquidations reach twice their hourly median.
Not available yet — the tape is still being recorded: hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 5/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 3/24. This question turns on by itself when the tape is there. A request returns a clear “no decision” and returns your credits.
26 launch questions · 26 questions · 16 askable now · 7 waiting on an address · 3 not available yet (liquidation tape BTC 5/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 3/24). S09, S10, and S11 need a Hyperliquid account before the ask is allowed. S02, S03, and S04 stay off until each asset has 24 hourly liquidation observations — the live count is shown above, read from the capability object.
How results are reported
Counts are always visible. A question’s calibration publishes once 30 outcomes are settled. A band’s measured frequency publishes only once that band alone holds 10. Nothing is filled in across a withheld band. The score is reported. It is not fed back into the next answer.
S01 results: BTC 11/11 predicted expansion, actual compression. The model is being reviewed.
- A refusal is an answer, never a number.
- A missing hour is not zero events. An empty result is data.
- No performance claim. Thresholds say what is asked, never how often it happens.
- We do not predict returns.
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage.
You’ll see the price before you pay.
Reading is free. Your first three entry-priced questions — S01 Market regime, S05 Volatility expansion, and S06 Funding anomaly — are free, once per payment address. A refusal never spends one. Long-window and account questions never draw on them. After that, the meter is the table below. One credit is a tenth of a cent at the opening price. The credit cost of a question stays fixed. The ladder changes the dollar price of credits.
Long window
$2
2,000 credits
S07 Funding persistence, S08 Open-interest anomaly
Account
$5
5,000 credits
S09 Wallet accumulation, S10 Wallet distribution, S11 Transaction risk
The ladder
The record sets the price. Every settled outcome moves it. Each step is 25% above the last and needs about ten times the evidence. Notice before a step turns is 24 hours. The price on a decision already in progress holds. Early buyers are the ones who move the ladder, and they buy at the cheapest step.
Step 0
At launch
$1.00
Step 1
1,000 settled outcomes
$1.25
Step 2
10,000 settled outcomes
$1.56
Step 3
100,000 settled outcomes
$1.95
Step 4
1,000,000 settled outcomes, or 1,000 active payers in 30 days
$2.44
Entry-question dollar price. Credit cost stays 1,000.
Plans and packs
Plans buy credits at wholesale. The one-dollar meter floor still holds for a single question. There is no automatic renewal.
Scout
Free
First 3 entry questions
S01, S05, and S06. Once per payment address. Does not recharge.
Operator
$99
150,000 credits
30-day cycle. You top up yourself.
Desk
$249
400,000 credits
30-day cycle. You top up yourself.
Desk Pro
$499
1,000,000 credits
30-day cycle. You top up yourself.
$150
150,000 credits
One-off. Expires in 60 days.
$600
650,000 credits
One-off. Expires in 60 days.
$2,000
2,400,000 credits
One-off. Expires in 60 days.
Nothing is sold on this page. Plans and booster packs go on sale when that purchase can complete. A plan is a 30-day cycle of credits. There is no automatic renewal. You top up when you need one.
USDC on Base · a refusal is an answer
A paid clock you can read for free and pay to open.
People use the browser: the question sheet, a countdown, the frozen claim, the public tape, a watchlist, a scheduled run with a spend cap, and a page for every decision. Agents call the same object through the Model Context Protocol, over HTTP. Pay per call in USDC on Base — no account, no API key — or spend prepaid credits. Poll the outcome, or receive it by hook. The website, the API, the command line, and the TypeScript and Python SDKs read that same object. A background worker freezes nothing after the fact: it settles the window, writes the outcome, and fires the hook.
What you can do
- Run one of the eight available questions and watch the countdown.
- Come back for the outcome, still attached to the claim.
- Read the tape of settled results for free.
- Follow questions, not only coins.
- Schedule a question at the start of every window, with your own stop.
- Take a free daily call on the same events. It is graded. Nothing is wagered, nothing is paid out, and there is no public board and no pay-to-rank.
What an agent can do
- Read the catalog, the open windows, and the price list without paying.
- Run a decision and pay per call in USDC on Base. No account. No API key.
- Poll the outcome, or receive it by hook instead of polling.
- Read the lineage: inputs, and whether the identifiers still agree.
- Schedule runs so the loop continues without a person.
The record sets the price.
Free reading and three free entry questions bring more runs. More runs settle more outcomes. Calibration publishes when the sample allows it. The ladder turns — 25% a step — with 24 hours’ notice, and buying before the turn is the incentive. The record that raises the price is produced by the people buying at the old price. No view, click, streak, or payment can move a question, a threshold, or a model.
Not for sale
- Reading the record. Charging admission to the proof would destroy the reason to trust it.
- Anything below a dollar on the meter.
- A rank on the scoreboard. No pay-to-rank.
- A wager or a payout on the daily call. It is a calibration game.
- A buy button for a payment method that cannot settle. The button appears when the purchase can complete.
What is live, and what is not on sale
Everything you can read here is the published description. What you can buy opens when the first purchase settles — and we will say so on the day, not before.
- The launch set is eleven questions, and the live catalog is larger. S09, S10, and S11 ask about a Hyperliquid account you name. S02 Liquidation risk, S03 Long squeeze, and S04 Short squeeze light up on their own at 24 hourly observations per asset — the live count is read from the deployment, not printed here.
- The loop runs end to end: run, freeze, settle, publish, calibrate.
- Per-call payment in USDC on Base is the payment method. A purchase button appears only when that payment can complete.
- Calibration publishes only when the sample allows it. The first question has crossed its floor and published its counts, with the bands still withheld.
- Plans and packs are priced and published. They are not on sale.
- The site, the API, the agent doorway, and the developer docs are built.
Questions
- Is this financial advice?
- A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Nothing on this page is an offer, a solicitation, or a recommendation.
- How is this different from a chat answer?
- A Tollbridge answer has a measurable event, a stated window, a price, and a public record. When the window closes, the outcome is written next to the claim. An opinion without a window cannot be checked.
- Is this a betting site?
- No. Nothing is wagered and nothing is paid out. The free daily call is a calibration game on the same events. Your record is graded. There is no crowd price.
- What happens when the data is bad?
- You get a refusal and its reason — stale data, a thin sample, or a tape that is not there. You are not charged. A free question is not spent.
- What does it cost?
- Reading is free. The first three entry questions are free, once per payment address. After that, S01, S05, and S06 start at $1, S07 and S08 at $2, and S09, S10, and S11 at $5. The dollar price of an entry question rises on the published ladder. You see the price before you pay.
- Which markets?
- The top perpetual futures on Hyperliquid by 24-hour volume, refreshed continuously, including BTC, ETH, and SOL. Wallet questions read a Hyperliquid account’s public positions.
- When do I see the outcome?
- At the end of the window: 60 minutes or 24 hours. Until then the decision is in progress, with its countdown and its own page. The outcome is obtained, did not, or unresolvable.
- What do I need to start?
- A browser and a Base address. An agent needs a Model Context Protocol client and a way to sign one USDC payment.
Get the launch note
Leave your address. It is recorded with your consent on this deployment’s contact list and acknowledged when it is. The note is sent to it when the launch note goes out — this page never says mail was sent that was not.
Tollbridge shows every probability with its question, time window, conditions, confidence and data age. When it cannot answer, it says so plainly — never a made-up number.
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage.