S01availablechoiceasset
Market regime
Probability distribution over the 60-minute market regime: trending up, trending down, range compression or range expansion — exactly one label obtains.
window 60m · data from hourly price candles
Methodology
The questions
Every question returns a probability that the event happens within the time window, given the stated data age and sample conditions, at a stated confidence. This page is methodology only — what each question asks and what it is computed from. No performance claims.
26 questions · 16 askable now · 7 waiting on an address · 3 not available yet (liquidation tape BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24) — S01 · S05 · S06 · S07 · S08 · S09 · S10 · S11 · S12 · S13 · S14 · S15 · S16 · S17 · S18 · S19 · S20 · S21 · S22 · S23 · S24 · S25 · S26 are computed from current data, and their outcomes are read from the same data at the end of the window. S02 · S03 · S04 are not sold on this deployment: the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does. A request returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; these questions are off the default pages.
S02not availableprobabilityasset
Liquidation risk
Probability that perp liquidation velocity reaches twice its trailing-24h median within 60 minutes, conditional on open interest, funding and book depth.
window 60m · data from liquidations, open interest, funding, order book
Not available yet — the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does (hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24). A request still returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; it is off the default pages.
S03not availableprobabilityasset
Long squeeze
Probability that long-side liquidation notional within 60 minutes reaches twice the trailing-24h hourly median — a long-unwind cascade.
window 60m · data from sided liquidations, funding
Not available yet — the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does (hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24). A request still returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; it is off the default pages.
S04not availableprobabilityasset
Short squeeze
Probability that short-side liquidation notional within 60 minutes reaches twice the trailing-24h hourly median — a short-covering cascade.
window 60m · data from sided liquidations, funding
Not available yet — the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does (hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24). A request still returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; it is off the default pages.
S05availableprobabilityasset
Volatility expansion
Probability that realized volatility over the next 60 minutes exceeds 1.5× the trailing-24h baseline, both measured on 1-minute returns.
window 60m · data from hourly price candles
S06availableprobabilityasset
Funding anomaly
Probability that the next funding settlement prints at least 3× the trailing-7-day median absolute rate; unresolvable — not false — if no settlement lands in the window.
window 60m · data from funding
S07availableprobabilityasset
Funding persistence
Probability that an extreme funding rate holds the same sign at ≥3 consecutive settlements within 24 hours — a funding regime, not a one-off print.
window 24h · data from funding
S08availableprobabilityasset
Open-interest anomaly
Probability that at least one 1-hour interval within 24 hours sees open-interest change exceed 3σ of its trailing-24h rhythm, standardized by its own history.
window 24h · data from open interest
S09availableprobabilitywallet
Wallet accumulation
Probability that a tracked Hyperliquid account holds a long position in the coin at the end of a 24-hour window, with the position worth at least a quarter of the account’s own equity.
window 24h · data from Hyperliquid account positions
S10availableprobabilitywallet
Wallet distribution
Probability that a tracked Hyperliquid account holds a short position in the coin at the end of a 24-hour window, with the position worth at least a quarter of the account’s own equity.
window 24h · data from Hyperliquid account positions
S11availablechoicewallet
Transaction risk
Distribution over allow, review or block for a Hyperliquid account’s liquidation proximity: how close its nearest position sits to its liquidation price, and how leveraged the account is.
window 60m · data from Hyperliquid account positions
S12availableprobabilityasset
Momentum exhaustion
Probability that momentum is exhausted: the 14-period relative-strength index at an extreme while the most recent 1-hour move is already smaller in magnitude than the one before it.
window 60m · data from hourly price candles
S13availableprobabilityasset
Volume drought
Probability that traded volume has fallen to under a third of its trailing-24h norm — thin participation that precedes gaps.
window 24h · data from hourly price candles
S14availableprobabilityasset
Liquidity migration
Probability that the market’s liquidity score has shifted by at least thirty percent from its previous 24-hour level — depth moving before price.
window 24h · data from hourly price candles
S15availableprobabilityasset
Basis stress
Probability that the perp-vs-spot basis is at least 50 basis points away from index — a structural divergence from crowded positioning.
window 24h · data from perp basis (mark vs index)
S16availableprobabilityasset
Spread blowout
Probability that the quoted bid-ask spread has widened to 10 basis points or more.
window 60m · data from the order book (top-of-book spread)
S17availableprobabilityasset
Book imbalance flip
Probability that the resting-depth imbalance has flipped sign — buyers’ resting depth has become sellers’, or vice versa.
window 60m · data from the order book (resting-depth imbalance)
S18availableprobabilityasset
Depth withdrawal
Probability that resting depth has fallen by at least thirty percent from an already-thin book — liquidity being pulled.
window 60m · data from the order book (resting depth)
S19availableprobabilityasset
Liquidation burst
Probability that liquidations are clustered: a single minute carrying at least 3× the window’s hourly liquidation velocity.
window 60m · data from the market-wide liquidation tape (per-minute print journal)
S20availableprobabilityasset
Liquidation severity
Probability that liquidation severity reaches 15 basis points per unit liquidated — forced flow moving price more than a healthy book absorbs.
window 60m · data from the market-wide liquidation tape (severity per dollar)
S21availableprobabilityasset
Mark-slippage stress
Probability that liquidations are printing at least 20 basis points away from the venue mark — the mark understating stress.
window 60m · data from the market-wide liquidation tape (mark vs fill)
S22availableprobabilityasset
Liquidation side pressure
Probability that forced flow is strongly one-sided and hitting the side that was already crowded — the precondition for a cascade.
window 60m · data from the market-wide liquidation tape (sided pressure)
S23availableprobabilitywallet
Wallet net outflow
Probability that a tracked wallet’s net flow is materially negative with an elevated distribution ratio — capital leaving with intent.
window 24h · data from wallet transfer flows
S24availableprobabilitywallet
Wallet concentration
Probability that a single counterparty accounts for at least half of a tracked wallet’s flow.
window 24h · data from wallet transfer flows
S25availableprobabilitywallet
Unusual wallet activity
Probability that a tracked wallet is doing at least three times its own recent normal — an unusual burst.
window 60m · data from wallet transfer flows
S26availableprobabilitywallet
Account deleverage
Probability that a tracked account’s exposure ratio has fallen by at least thirty percent from its prior reading — actively cutting risk.
window 60m · data from Hyperliquid account positions
Liquidation tape, market by market
The sample the risk questions are computed from — the same rows they read, nothing recomputed here.
BTC
23 of 24 hours sampled · below the floor
23 of 24 window hours present · source goldrush
ETH
23 of 24 hours sampled · below the floor
23 of 24 window hours present · source goldrush
SOL
23 of 24 hours sampled · below the floor
23 of 24 window hours present · source goldrush
When a question declines, and calibration honesty
Probabilities are calibrated against measured outcomes; calibration history is published only when sample size is sufficient.
When the data is too old or the sample is too small, the question returns no decision — it shows the reason verbatim (for example, insufficient sample) instead of a made-up number.
Thresholds in the copy above (2×, 1.5×, 3×, 3σ) are the questions' own definitions — they say what is being asked, not how often it happens. A threshold's existence implies nothing about performance.