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Every probability comes with the question, the time window, the conditions, the confidence and the data age.

26 questions · 16 askable now · 7 waiting on an address · 3 not available yet (liquidation tape BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24) — S01 · S05 · S06 · S07 · S08 · S09 · S10 · S11 · S12 · S13 · S14 · S15 · S16 · S17 · S18 · S19 · S20 · S21 · S22 · S23 · S24 · S25 · S26 are computed from current data, and S02 · S03 · S04 are not sold on this deployment: the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does. Availability is read live — this page never claims a question is live on its own.

• S01availablechoice

  Market regime

  Probability distribution over the 60-minute market regime: trending up, trending down, range compression or range expansion — exactly one label obtains.

  window 60m·hourly price candles
• S02not availableprobability

  Liquidation risk

  Probability that perp liquidation velocity reaches twice its trailing-24h median within 60 minutes, conditional on open interest, funding and book depth.

  window 60m·liquidations, open interest, funding, order book

  Not available yet — the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does (hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24). A request still returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; it is off the default pages.

• S03not availableprobability

  Long squeeze

  Probability that long-side liquidation notional within 60 minutes reaches twice the trailing-24h hourly median — a long-unwind cascade.

  window 60m·sided liquidations, funding

  Not available yet — the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does (hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24). A request still returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; it is off the default pages.

• S04not availableprobability

  Short squeeze

  Probability that short-side liquidation notional within 60 minutes reaches twice the trailing-24h hourly median — a short-covering cascade.

  window 60m·sided liquidations, funding

  Not available yet — the market-wide liquidation tape is being recorded from a named market-data provider, but it has not held 24 hourly observations yet — this question stays off the default rail until it does (hourly liquidations on the goldrush tape: BTC 7/24 · ETH 4/24 · SOL 9/24). A request still returns a clear "no decision" and refunds your credits; it is off the default pages.

• S05availableprobability

  Volatility expansion

  Probability that realized volatility over the next 60 minutes exceeds 1.5× the trailing-24h baseline, both measured on 1-minute returns.

  window 60m·hourly price candles
• S06availableprobability

  Funding anomaly

  Probability that the next funding settlement prints at least 3× the trailing-7-day median absolute rate; unresolvable — not false — if no settlement lands in the window.

  window 60m·funding
• S07availableprobability

  Funding persistence

  Probability that an extreme funding rate holds the same sign at ≥3 consecutive settlements within 24 hours — a funding regime, not a one-off print.

  window 24h·funding
• S08availableprobability

  Open-interest anomaly

  Probability that at least one 1-hour interval within 24 hours sees open-interest change exceed 3σ of its trailing-24h rhythm, standardized by its own history.

  window 24h·open interest
• S09availableprobability

  Wallet accumulation

  Probability that a tracked Hyperliquid account holds a long position in the coin at the end of a 24-hour window, with the position worth at least a quarter of the account’s own equity.

  window 24h·Hyperliquid account positions
• S10availableprobability

  Wallet distribution

  Probability that a tracked Hyperliquid account holds a short position in the coin at the end of a 24-hour window, with the position worth at least a quarter of the account’s own equity.

  window 24h·Hyperliquid account positions
• S11availablechoice

  Transaction risk

  Distribution over allow, review or block for a Hyperliquid account’s liquidation proximity: how close its nearest position sits to its liquidation price, and how leveraged the account is.

  window 60m·Hyperliquid account positions
• S12availableprobability

  Momentum exhaustion

  Probability that momentum is exhausted: the 14-period relative-strength index at an extreme while the most recent 1-hour move is already smaller in magnitude than the one before it.

  window 60m·hourly price candles
• S13availableprobability

  Volume drought

  Probability that traded volume has fallen to under a third of its trailing-24h norm — thin participation that precedes gaps.

  window 24h·hourly price candles
• S14availableprobability

  Liquidity migration

  Probability that the market’s liquidity score has shifted by at least thirty percent from its previous 24-hour level — depth moving before price.

  window 24h·hourly price candles
• S15availableprobability

  Basis stress

  Probability that the perp-vs-spot basis is at least 50 basis points away from index — a structural divergence from crowded positioning.

  window 24h·perp basis (mark vs index)
• S16availableprobability

  Spread blowout

  Probability that the quoted bid-ask spread has widened to 10 basis points or more.

  window 60m·the order book (top-of-book spread)
• S17availableprobability

  Book imbalance flip

  Probability that the resting-depth imbalance has flipped sign — buyers’ resting depth has become sellers’, or vice versa.

  window 60m·the order book (resting-depth imbalance)
• S18availableprobability

  Depth withdrawal

  Probability that resting depth has fallen by at least thirty percent from an already-thin book — liquidity being pulled.

  window 60m·the order book (resting depth)
• S19availableprobability

  Liquidation burst

  Probability that liquidations are clustered: a single minute carrying at least 3× the window’s hourly liquidation velocity.

  window 60m·the market-wide liquidation tape (per-minute print journal)
• S20availableprobability

  Liquidation severity

  Probability that liquidation severity reaches 15 basis points per unit liquidated — forced flow moving price more than a healthy book absorbs.

  window 60m·the market-wide liquidation tape (severity per dollar)
• S21availableprobability

  Mark-slippage stress

  Probability that liquidations are printing at least 20 basis points away from the venue mark — the mark understating stress.

  window 60m·the market-wide liquidation tape (mark vs fill)
• S22availableprobability

  Liquidation side pressure

  Probability that forced flow is strongly one-sided and hitting the side that was already crowded — the precondition for a cascade.

  window 60m·the market-wide liquidation tape (sided pressure)
• S23availableprobability

  Wallet net outflow

  Probability that a tracked wallet’s net flow is materially negative with an elevated distribution ratio — capital leaving with intent.

  window 24h·wallet transfer flows
• S24availableprobability

  Wallet concentration

  Probability that a single counterparty accounts for at least half of a tracked wallet’s flow.

  window 24h·wallet transfer flows
• S25availableprobability

  Unusual wallet activity

  Probability that a tracked wallet is doing at least three times its own recent normal — an unusual burst.

  window 60m·wallet transfer flows
• S26availableprobability

  Account deleverage

  Probability that a tracked account’s exposure ratio has fallen by at least thirty percent from its prior reading — actively cutting risk.

  window 60m·Hyperliquid account positions