Results
What resolved
The last settled decision for each question and coin, and how reliable the published probabilities have been by range. Results come from the same record the rest of the site reads — nothing here is computed separately.
Read 07:06:21 UTC
Last result per question
One chip per question and coin — the latest settled decision only.
S01Market regime
BTC
predicted Range compression
window closed 21:04:27 UTC · 60m
ID 445fc72b
S05Volatility expansion
BTC
predicted p 36.0%
window closed 21:33:17 UTC · 60m
ID 9ecca49c
S06Funding anomaly
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 04:55:10 UTC · 60m
ID dd9c68a7
S07Funding persistence
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 04:02:08 UTC · 24h
ID 91611190
S08Open-interest anomaly
BTC
predicted p 1.0%
window closed 19:36:24 UTC · 24h
ID 314dfffb
S09Wallet accumulation
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 04:19:14 UTC · 24h
ID 61d88190
S10Wallet distribution
BTC
predicted p 92.0%
window closed 04:19:13 UTC · 24h
ID 110cdcc8
S11Transaction risk
BTC
predicted Allow
window closed 14:15:33 UTC · 60m
ID 60f1cee3
S12Momentum exhaustion
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 04:55:13 UTC · 60m
ID 3b8a2583
S13Volume drought
BTC
predicted p 100.0%
window closed 00:01:34 UTC · 24h
ID c5636086
S14Liquidity migration
BTC
predicted p 99.0%
window closed 00:06:08 UTC · 24h
ID 1c0608c7
S15Basis stress
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 00:06:08 UTC · 24h
ID 6c9603a2
S16Spread blowout
BTC
predicted p 39.0%
window closed 04:55:13 UTC · 60m
ID 1a09b6ac
S17Book imbalance flip
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 04:56:11 UTC · 60m
ID 895d58b9
S18Depth withdrawal
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 04:56:12 UTC · 60m
ID 8ee582b3
S19Liquidation burst
BTC
predicted p 97.0%
resolves 16:34:17 UTC · 60m
ID d10e37e5
S20Liquidation severity
BTC
predicted p 100.0%
resolves 16:34:17 UTC · 60m
ID 59be1618
S21Mark-slippage stress
BTC
predicted p 10.0%
resolves 16:34:17 UTC · 60m
ID 75ef7a6e
S22Liquidation side pressure
BTC
predicted p 98.0%
resolves 16:34:18 UTC · 60m
ID c607e541
S26Account deleverage
BTC
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 03:38:09 UTC · 60m
ID e73fef26
X05X05_vol_1m
BTC
predicted p 8.0%
window closed 03:57:22 UTC · 60m
ID 75f8e24d
X05X05_vol_3m
BTC
predicted p 10.0%
window closed 04:00:27 UTC · 60m
ID d0baf38c
X05X05_vol_5m
BTC
predicted p 9.0%
window closed 04:01:36 UTC · 60m
ID f1f7a793
X05X05_vol_15m
BTC
predicted p 4.0%
window closed 04:12:28 UTC · 60m
ID 03bccd46
X05X05_vol_30m
BTC
predicted p 5.0%
window closed 04:27:30 UTC · 60m
ID d0062b0c
X06X06_move_1m
BTC
predicted p 38.0%
window closed 03:58:33 UTC · 60m
ID e99fcd0e
X06X06_move_3m
BTC
predicted p 24.0%
window closed 04:00:35 UTC · 60m
ID 7580c0f0
X06X06_move_5m
BTC
predicted p 31.0%
window closed 04:07:10 UTC · 60m
ID 975ae6ab
X06X06_move_15m
BTC
predicted p 36.0%
window closed 04:17:13 UTC · 60m
ID c584510f
X06X06_move_30m
BTC
predicted p 14.0%
window closed 04:32:23 UTC · 60m
ID a1537f63
X07X07_move_1m
BTC
predicted p 42.0%
window closed 04:03:26 UTC · 60m
ID 50b2f94f
X07X07_move_3m
BTC
predicted p 43.0%
window closed 04:05:27 UTC · 60m
ID 28e18a59
X07X07_move_5m
BTC
predicted p 97.0%
window closed 04:17:56 UTC · 60m
ID 66362558
X07X07_move_15m
BTC
predicted p 94.0%
window closed 04:37:53 UTC · 60m
ID 86b0e9c3
X07X07_move_30m
BTC
predicted p 94.0%
window closed 04:52:55 UTC · 60m
ID 7e5fe9e0
X08X08_move_1m
BTC
predicted p 98.0%
window closed 04:23:59 UTC · 60m
ID e7ea12c5
X08X08_move_3m
BTC
predicted p 99.0%
window closed 19:56:59 UTC · 60m
ID 4068e7ed
X08X08_move_5m
BTC
predicted p 96.0%
window closed 19:59:03 UTC · 60m
ID 5cd70525
X08X08_move_15m
BTC
predicted p 98.0%
window closed 20:13:55 UTC · 60m
ID d581e7a4
X08X08_move_30m
BTC
predicted p 97.0%
window closed 20:28:59 UTC · 60m
ID 453c8b3d
X08X08_move_60m
BTC
predicted p 97.0%
window closed 20:59:02 UTC · 60m
ID 72e5aa6f
X09X09_move_1m
BTC
predicted p 65.0%
window closed 20:00:06 UTC · 60m
ID 8be40fba
X09X09_move_3m
BTC
predicted p 98.0%
window closed 20:02:11 UTC · 60m
ID 825adc87
X09X09_move_5m
BTC
predicted p 97.0%
window closed 20:08:49 UTC · 60m
ID 46f36689
X09X09_move_15m
BTC
predicted p 16.0%
window closed 20:18:54 UTC · 60m
ID 6eb235e0
X09X09_move_30m
BTC
predicted p 70.0%
window closed 20:34:00 UTC · 60m
ID 671fbe93
X09X09_move_60m
BTC
predicted p 34.0%
window closed 21:04:03 UTC · 60m
ID 25412744
S01Market regime
ETH
predicted Range compression
window closed 21:04:05 UTC · 60m
ID 709db04e
S05Volatility expansion
ETH
predicted p 24.6%
window closed 21:08:49 UTC · 60m
ID b6165f00
S06Funding anomaly
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 21:08:53 UTC · 60m
ID 9516a9df
S07Funding persistence
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 20:08:55 UTC · 24h
ID 4b5629d7
S08Open-interest anomaly
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 06:47:19 UTC · 24h
ID 966cac46
S11Transaction risk
ETH
predicted Block
window closed 05:21:33 UTC · 60m
ID f3379572
S12Momentum exhaustion
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 08:03:40 UTC · 60m
ID 6f4f582f
S16Spread blowout
ETH
predicted p 11.0%
window closed 08:03:47 UTC · 60m
ID e186f75a
S19Liquidation burst
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 08:03:58 UTC · 60m
ID dc05af3e
S21Mark-slippage stress
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 08:04:03 UTC · 60m
ID 982231c9
S22Liquidation side pressure
ETH
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 08:04:07 UTC · 60m
ID a4d0c5d7
X05X05_vol_1m
ETH
predicted p 3.0%
window closed 08:41:40 UTC · 60m
ID e95a50fd
X05X05_vol_3m
ETH
predicted p 9.0%
window closed 09:49:51 UTC · 60m
ID 90fab37e
X05X05_vol_5m
ETH
predicted p 6.0%
window closed 10:29:32 UTC · 60m
ID aadd241e
X05X05_vol_15m
ETH
predicted p 4.0%
window closed 10:44:16 UTC · 60m
ID b5aa5556
X05X05_vol_30m
ETH
predicted p 2.0%
window closed 10:54:45 UTC · 60m
ID ea5a661c
X06X06_move_1m
ETH
predicted p 28.0%
window closed 09:50:11 UTC · 60m
ID 65c4dfb0
X06X06_move_3m
ETH
predicted p 20.0%
window closed 09:49:38 UTC · 60m
ID f79abaa4
X06X06_move_5m
ETH
predicted p 21.0%
window closed 09:50:03 UTC · 60m
ID 12e77a31
X06X06_move_15m
ETH
predicted p 24.0%
window closed 10:44:01 UTC · 60m
ID 92f0f503
X06X06_move_30m
ETH
predicted p 11.0%
window closed 10:17:36 UTC · 60m
ID f5ac20a1
X07X07_move_1m
ETH
predicted p 19.0%
window closed 11:19:02 UTC · 60m
ID 1c644be6
X07X07_move_3m
ETH
predicted p 19.0%
window closed 11:21:12 UTC · 60m
ID 36fdd3cb
X07X07_move_5m
ETH
predicted p 13.0%
window closed 10:33:28 UTC · 60m
ID 37f19479
X07X07_move_15m
ETH
predicted p 11.0%
window closed 10:43:40 UTC · 60m
ID 254179ff
X07X07_move_30m
ETH
predicted p 8.0%
window closed 10:58:52 UTC · 60m
ID ffbfa0d1
X08X08_move_1m
ETH
predicted p 6.0%
window closed 05:33:15 UTC · 60m
ID ca760f1a
X08X08_move_3m
ETH
predicted p 4.0%
window closed 23:20:35 UTC · 60m
ID ec1875f4
X08X08_move_5m
ETH
predicted p 89.0%
window closed 23:04:16 UTC · 60m
ID 09c3deed
X08X08_move_15m
ETH
predicted p 4.0%
window closed 23:06:59 UTC · 60m
ID e522051d
X08X08_move_30m
ETH
predicted p 98.0%
window closed 21:48:05 UTC · 60m
ID b8539c56
X08X08_move_60m
ETH
predicted p 96.0%
window closed 00:13:29 UTC · 60m
ID ac4bd385
X09X09_move_1m
ETH
predicted p 5.0%
window closed 05:33:21 UTC · 60m
ID 6c371aef
X09X09_move_3m
ETH
predicted p 20.0%
window closed 23:20:30 UTC · 60m
ID 78e7430f
X09X09_move_5m
ETH
predicted p 6.0%
window closed 23:04:21 UTC · 60m
ID e775a69d
X09X09_move_15m
ETH
predicted p 19.0%
window closed 23:07:06 UTC · 60m
ID 779a95c5
X09X09_move_30m
ETH
predicted p 70.0%
window closed 21:47:58 UTC · 60m
ID 1ee70bc3
X09X09_move_60m
ETH
predicted p 2.0%
window closed 00:13:34 UTC · 60m
ID 587095e7
S01Market regime
SOL
predicted Range compression
window closed 12:18:33 UTC · 60m
ID 9c977ec5
S05Volatility expansion
SOL
predicted p 7.3%
window closed 12:18:30 UTC · 60m
ID 70406585
S06Funding anomaly
SOL
predicted p 9.0%
window closed 12:18:42 UTC · 60m
ID 36553de4
S07Funding persistence
SOL
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 00:25:44 UTC · 24h
ID af1f9a70
S08Open-interest anomaly
SOL
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 06:52:24 UTC · 24h
ID 62cc58fe
S12Momentum exhaustion
SOL
predicted p 0.0%
window closed 08:03:42 UTC · 60m
ID 976195ae
S16Spread blowout
SOL
predicted p 6.0%
window closed 08:03:49 UTC · 60m
ID f1f208b6
S19Liquidation burst
SOL
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 08:03:59 UTC · 60m
ID fcf6afb6
S21Mark-slippage stress
SOL
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 08:04:04 UTC · 60m
ID 47422004
S22Liquidation side pressure
SOL
predicted p 0.0%
resolves 08:04:08 UTC · 60m
ID 4581a8d1
X05X05_vol_1m
SOL
predicted p 4.0%
window closed 08:57:14 UTC · 60m
ID ec665224
X05X05_vol_3m
SOL
predicted p 5.0%
window closed 10:32:09 UTC · 60m
ID 4fabd1dd
X05X05_vol_5m
SOL
predicted p 5.0%
window closed 10:29:36 UTC · 60m
ID 9f43d164
X05X05_vol_15m
SOL
predicted p 5.0%
window closed 10:44:19 UTC · 60m
ID a338b815
X05X05_vol_30m
SOL
predicted p 3.0%
window closed 10:54:49 UTC · 60m
ID 5c7fdbd0
X06X06_move_1m
SOL
predicted p 26.0%
window closed 09:48:27 UTC · 60m
ID c05434af
X06X06_move_3m
SOL
predicted p 18.0%
window closed 09:50:31 UTC · 60m
ID 55cbc658
X06X06_move_5m
SOL
predicted p 17.0%
window closed 09:49:13 UTC · 60m
ID af74f557
X06X06_move_15m
SOL
predicted p 20.0%
window closed 10:44:05 UTC · 60m
ID 8966ba11
X06X06_move_30m
SOL
predicted p 8.0%
window closed 10:17:12 UTC · 60m
ID 9a41d18d
X07X07_move_1m
SOL
predicted p 18.0%
window closed 11:19:06 UTC · 60m
ID e42059df
X07X07_move_3m
SOL
predicted p 15.0%
window closed 11:21:15 UTC · 60m
ID 0220f072
X07X07_move_5m
SOL
predicted p 13.0%
window closed 10:33:32 UTC · 60m
ID 8a273b70
X07X07_move_15m
SOL
predicted p 10.0%
window closed 10:43:44 UTC · 60m
ID 5d91650a
X07X07_move_30m
SOL
predicted p 9.0%
window closed 10:58:56 UTC · 60m
ID be1c6ee8
X08X08_move_1m
SOL
predicted p 16.0%
window closed 05:32:27 UTC · 60m
ID 9fd2423a
X08X08_move_3m
SOL
predicted p 5.0%
window closed 23:17:04 UTC · 60m
ID 9778215b
X08X08_move_5m
SOL
predicted p 98.0%
window closed 23:04:27 UTC · 60m
ID 6d00a5f2
X08X08_move_15m
SOL
predicted p 72.0%
window closed 23:07:11 UTC · 60m
ID 9187d31e
X08X08_move_30m
SOL
predicted p 98.0%
window closed 22:20:52 UTC · 60m
ID 919ce0c7
X08X08_move_60m
SOL
predicted p 96.0%
window closed 00:13:39 UTC · 60m
ID e7bfd06e
X09X09_move_1m
SOL
predicted p 72.0%
window closed 05:32:33 UTC · 60m
ID a91f8c44
X09X09_move_3m
SOL
predicted p 32.0%
window closed 23:11:43 UTC · 60m
ID 6d6f91aa
X09X09_move_5m
SOL
predicted p 51.0%
window closed 23:04:32 UTC · 60m
ID a7c9720e
X09X09_move_15m
SOL
predicted p 57.0%
window closed 23:07:16 UTC · 60m
ID f7c2bd03
X09X09_move_30m
SOL
predicted p 2.0%
window closed 22:19:26 UTC · 60m
ID d899e0a4
X09X09_move_60m
SOL
predicted p 2.0%
window closed 00:13:44 UTC · 60m
ID 01694ba9
A result shows the answer and whether it matched the question's prediction. Full detail — conditions, freshness and the method — is on the question's page.
Predicted vs actual
How reliable the published probabilities have been, by predicted range. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle; the measured frequencies are published only when the sample is large enough — when it is not, we say so rather than draw a chart.
Loading… · every 30s
S01Market regime
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 19 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 19 realized outcomes on file across 7 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 19 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S05Volatility expansion
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 16 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 7 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 4 | 45.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 5 | 55.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
published at 31 outcomes; 5 of 6 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 7)
S06Funding anomaly
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 29 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 4 | 45.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
published at 31 outcomes; 2 of 3 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 1)
S07Funding persistence
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S08Open-interest anomaly
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S09Wallet accumulation
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S10Wallet distribution
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 2 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 2 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 2 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S11Transaction risk
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S12Momentum exhaustion
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 15 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 15 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 15 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S13Volume drought
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S14Liquidity migration
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S15Basis stress
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S16Spread blowout
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 15 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 15 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 15 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S17Book imbalance flip
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 12 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 12 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 12 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S18Depth withdrawal
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 12 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 12 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 12 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S19Liquidation burst
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S20Liquidation severity
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S21Mark-slippage stress
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
S22Liquidation side pressure
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X05_vol_15m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 34 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 6 | 65.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
published at 39 outcomes; 5 of 6 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 1)
X05_vol_1m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 114 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 4 | 45.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 5 | 55.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 6 | 65.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
published at 126 outcomes; 8 of 9 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 2)
X05_vol_30m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 24 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 24 realized outcomes on file across 5 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 24 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X05_vol_3m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 84 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 7 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 4 | 45.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 6 | 65.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
published at 99 outcomes; 7 of 8 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 7)
X05_vol_5m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 65 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 4 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 4 | 45.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 6 | 65.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
published at 76 outcomes; 7 of 8 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 4)
X06_move_15m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 27 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 27 realized outcomes on file across 5 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 27 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X06_move_1m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 25.0% | 39.5% | 43 |
| 3 | 35.0% | 23.5% | 17 |
| 4 | 45.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
| 9 | 95.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
published at 68 outcomes; 4 of 6 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 3)
X06_move_30m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 20 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 20 realized outcomes on file across 6 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 20 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X06_move_3m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15.0% | 66.7% | 18 |
| 2 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 28 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
| 9 | 95.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
published at 53 outcomes; 3 of 5 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 3)
X06_move_5m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15.0% | 35.7% | 14 |
| 2 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 1 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
| 9 | 95.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
published at 41 outcomes; 3 of 5 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 3)
X07_move_15m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 7 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 7 realized outcomes on file across 3 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 7 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X07_move_1m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 13 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 13 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 13 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X07_move_30m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 7 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 7 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 7 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X07_move_3m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 13 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 13 realized outcomes on file across 5 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 13 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X07_move_5m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 7 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 7 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 7 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X08_move_15m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X08_move_1m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 21.4% | 14 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 7 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 5 | 55.0% | too few in this band | 4 |
| 6 | 65.0% | too few in this band | 7 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 9 |
| 9 | 95.0% | 77.3% | 22 |
published at 68 outcomes; 6 of 8 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 9)
X08_move_30m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X08_move_3m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X08_move_5m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X08_move_60m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X09_move_15m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X09_move_1m
| range | predicted average | actual frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 20.0% | 20 |
| 1 | 15.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
| 2 | 25.0% | too few in this band | 3 |
| 3 | 35.0% | too few in this band | 6 |
| 5 | 55.0% | too few in this band | 4 |
| 6 | 65.0% | too few in this band | 5 |
| 7 | 75.0% | too few in this band | 2 |
| 8 | 85.0% | too few in this band | 5 |
| 9 | 95.0% | 86.7% | 15 |
published at 63 outcomes; 7 of 9 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 6)
X09_move_30m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X09_move_3m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 2 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 2 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 2 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X09_move_5m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 2 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 2 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 2 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
X09_move_60m
Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.
Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.
measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone
Need to ask a fresh question? The dashboard and each coin's page show the exact price before anything is charged.
Self-consistency check
Readings you enter here — nothing is stored, nothing is published.
Published readings of the same state sometimes disagree. Add two or more readings and the check reports how closely they agree — the modal outcome, the agreement share, and the spread between your probabilities.
No readings yet — add at least two.