Results

What resolved

The last settled decision for each question and coin, and how reliable the published probabilities have been by range. Results come from the same record the rest of the site reads — nothing here is computed separately.

Read 07:06:21 UTC

Last result per question

One chip per question and coin — the latest settled decision only.

S01Market regime

BTC

match yes

predicted Range compression

window closed 21:04:27 UTC · 60m

ID 445fc72b

S05Volatility expansion

BTC

match no

predicted p 36.0%

window closed 21:33:17 UTC · 60m

ID 9ecca49c

S06Funding anomaly

BTC

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 04:55:10 UTC · 60m

ID dd9c68a7

S07Funding persistence

BTC

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 04:02:08 UTC · 24h

ID 91611190

S08Open-interest anomaly

BTC

match no

predicted p 1.0%

window closed 19:36:24 UTC · 24h

ID 314dfffb

S09Wallet accumulation

BTC

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 04:19:14 UTC · 24h

ID 61d88190

S10Wallet distribution

BTC

match yes

predicted p 92.0%

window closed 04:19:13 UTC · 24h

ID 110cdcc8

S11Transaction risk

BTC

match yes

predicted Allow

window closed 14:15:33 UTC · 60m

ID 60f1cee3

S12Momentum exhaustion

BTC

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 04:55:13 UTC · 60m

ID 3b8a2583

S13Volume drought

BTC

match yes

predicted p 100.0%

window closed 00:01:34 UTC · 24h

ID c5636086

S14Liquidity migration

BTC

match yes

predicted p 99.0%

window closed 00:06:08 UTC · 24h

ID 1c0608c7

S15Basis stress

BTC

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 00:06:08 UTC · 24h

ID 6c9603a2

S16Spread blowout

BTC

match yes

predicted p 39.0%

window closed 04:55:13 UTC · 60m

ID 1a09b6ac

S17Book imbalance flip

BTC

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 04:56:11 UTC · 60m

ID 895d58b9

S18Depth withdrawal

BTC

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 04:56:12 UTC · 60m

ID 8ee582b3

S19Liquidation burst

BTC

awaiting outcome

predicted p 97.0%

resolves 16:34:17 UTC · 60m

ID d10e37e5

S20Liquidation severity

BTC

awaiting outcome

predicted p 100.0%

resolves 16:34:17 UTC · 60m

ID 59be1618

S21Mark-slippage stress

BTC

awaiting outcome

predicted p 10.0%

resolves 16:34:17 UTC · 60m

ID 75ef7a6e

S22Liquidation side pressure

BTC

awaiting outcome

predicted p 98.0%

resolves 16:34:18 UTC · 60m

ID c607e541

S26Account deleverage

BTC

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 03:38:09 UTC · 60m

ID e73fef26

X05X05_vol_1m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 8.0%

window closed 03:57:22 UTC · 60m

ID 75f8e24d

X05X05_vol_3m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 10.0%

window closed 04:00:27 UTC · 60m

ID d0baf38c

X05X05_vol_5m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 9.0%

window closed 04:01:36 UTC · 60m

ID f1f7a793

X05X05_vol_15m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 4.0%

window closed 04:12:28 UTC · 60m

ID 03bccd46

X05X05_vol_30m

BTC

match no

predicted p 5.0%

window closed 04:27:30 UTC · 60m

ID d0062b0c

X06X06_move_1m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 38.0%

window closed 03:58:33 UTC · 60m

ID e99fcd0e

X06X06_move_3m

BTC

match no

predicted p 24.0%

window closed 04:00:35 UTC · 60m

ID 7580c0f0

X06X06_move_5m

BTC

match no

predicted p 31.0%

window closed 04:07:10 UTC · 60m

ID 975ae6ab

X06X06_move_15m

BTC

match no

predicted p 36.0%

window closed 04:17:13 UTC · 60m

ID c584510f

X06X06_move_30m

BTC

match no

predicted p 14.0%

window closed 04:32:23 UTC · 60m

ID a1537f63

X07X07_move_1m

BTC

match no

predicted p 42.0%

window closed 04:03:26 UTC · 60m

ID 50b2f94f

X07X07_move_3m

BTC

match no

predicted p 43.0%

window closed 04:05:27 UTC · 60m

ID 28e18a59

X07X07_move_5m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 97.0%

window closed 04:17:56 UTC · 60m

ID 66362558

X07X07_move_15m

BTC

match no

predicted p 94.0%

window closed 04:37:53 UTC · 60m

ID 86b0e9c3

X07X07_move_30m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 94.0%

window closed 04:52:55 UTC · 60m

ID 7e5fe9e0

X08X08_move_1m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 98.0%

window closed 04:23:59 UTC · 60m

ID e7ea12c5

X08X08_move_3m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 99.0%

window closed 19:56:59 UTC · 60m

ID 4068e7ed

X08X08_move_5m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 96.0%

window closed 19:59:03 UTC · 60m

ID 5cd70525

X08X08_move_15m

BTC

match no

predicted p 98.0%

window closed 20:13:55 UTC · 60m

ID d581e7a4

X08X08_move_30m

BTC

match no

predicted p 97.0%

window closed 20:28:59 UTC · 60m

ID 453c8b3d

X08X08_move_60m

BTC

match no

predicted p 97.0%

window closed 20:59:02 UTC · 60m

ID 72e5aa6f

X09X09_move_1m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 65.0%

window closed 20:00:06 UTC · 60m

ID 8be40fba

X09X09_move_3m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 98.0%

window closed 20:02:11 UTC · 60m

ID 825adc87

X09X09_move_5m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 97.0%

window closed 20:08:49 UTC · 60m

ID 46f36689

X09X09_move_15m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 16.0%

window closed 20:18:54 UTC · 60m

ID 6eb235e0

X09X09_move_30m

BTC

match no

predicted p 70.0%

window closed 20:34:00 UTC · 60m

ID 671fbe93

X09X09_move_60m

BTC

match yes

predicted p 34.0%

window closed 21:04:03 UTC · 60m

ID 25412744

S01Market regime

ETH

match yes

predicted Range compression

window closed 21:04:05 UTC · 60m

ID 709db04e

S05Volatility expansion

ETH

match yes

predicted p 24.6%

window closed 21:08:49 UTC · 60m

ID b6165f00

S06Funding anomaly

ETH

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 21:08:53 UTC · 60m

ID 9516a9df

S07Funding persistence

ETH

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 20:08:55 UTC · 24h

ID 4b5629d7

S08Open-interest anomaly

ETH

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 06:47:19 UTC · 24h

ID 966cac46

S11Transaction risk

ETH

match no

predicted Block

window closed 05:21:33 UTC · 60m

ID f3379572

S12Momentum exhaustion

ETH

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 08:03:40 UTC · 60m

ID 6f4f582f

S16Spread blowout

ETH

match yes

predicted p 11.0%

window closed 08:03:47 UTC · 60m

ID e186f75a

S19Liquidation burst

ETH

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 08:03:58 UTC · 60m

ID dc05af3e

S21Mark-slippage stress

ETH

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 08:04:03 UTC · 60m

ID 982231c9

S22Liquidation side pressure

ETH

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 08:04:07 UTC · 60m

ID a4d0c5d7

X05X05_vol_1m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 3.0%

window closed 08:41:40 UTC · 60m

ID e95a50fd

X05X05_vol_3m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 9.0%

window closed 09:49:51 UTC · 60m

ID 90fab37e

X05X05_vol_5m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 6.0%

window closed 10:29:32 UTC · 60m

ID aadd241e

X05X05_vol_15m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 4.0%

window closed 10:44:16 UTC · 60m

ID b5aa5556

X05X05_vol_30m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 2.0%

window closed 10:54:45 UTC · 60m

ID ea5a661c

X06X06_move_1m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 28.0%

window closed 09:50:11 UTC · 60m

ID 65c4dfb0

X06X06_move_3m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 20.0%

window closed 09:49:38 UTC · 60m

ID f79abaa4

X06X06_move_5m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 21.0%

window closed 09:50:03 UTC · 60m

ID 12e77a31

X06X06_move_15m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 24.0%

window closed 10:44:01 UTC · 60m

ID 92f0f503

X06X06_move_30m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 11.0%

window closed 10:17:36 UTC · 60m

ID f5ac20a1

X07X07_move_1m

ETH

match no

predicted p 19.0%

window closed 11:19:02 UTC · 60m

ID 1c644be6

X07X07_move_3m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 19.0%

window closed 11:21:12 UTC · 60m

ID 36fdd3cb

X07X07_move_5m

ETH

match no

predicted p 13.0%

window closed 10:33:28 UTC · 60m

ID 37f19479

X07X07_move_15m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 11.0%

window closed 10:43:40 UTC · 60m

ID 254179ff

X07X07_move_30m

ETH

match no

predicted p 8.0%

window closed 10:58:52 UTC · 60m

ID ffbfa0d1

X08X08_move_1m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 6.0%

window closed 05:33:15 UTC · 60m

ID ca760f1a

X08X08_move_3m

ETH

match no

predicted p 4.0%

window closed 23:20:35 UTC · 60m

ID ec1875f4

X08X08_move_5m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 89.0%

window closed 23:04:16 UTC · 60m

ID 09c3deed

X08X08_move_15m

ETH

match no

predicted p 4.0%

window closed 23:06:59 UTC · 60m

ID e522051d

X08X08_move_30m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 98.0%

window closed 21:48:05 UTC · 60m

ID b8539c56

X08X08_move_60m

ETH

match no

predicted p 96.0%

window closed 00:13:29 UTC · 60m

ID ac4bd385

X09X09_move_1m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 5.0%

window closed 05:33:21 UTC · 60m

ID 6c371aef

X09X09_move_3m

ETH

match no

predicted p 20.0%

window closed 23:20:30 UTC · 60m

ID 78e7430f

X09X09_move_5m

ETH

match no

predicted p 6.0%

window closed 23:04:21 UTC · 60m

ID e775a69d

X09X09_move_15m

ETH

match no

predicted p 19.0%

window closed 23:07:06 UTC · 60m

ID 779a95c5

X09X09_move_30m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 70.0%

window closed 21:47:58 UTC · 60m

ID 1ee70bc3

X09X09_move_60m

ETH

match yes

predicted p 2.0%

window closed 00:13:34 UTC · 60m

ID 587095e7

S01Market regime

SOL

match yes

predicted Range compression

window closed 12:18:33 UTC · 60m

ID 9c977ec5

S05Volatility expansion

SOL

match yes

predicted p 7.3%

window closed 12:18:30 UTC · 60m

ID 70406585

S06Funding anomaly

SOL

match yes

predicted p 9.0%

window closed 12:18:42 UTC · 60m

ID 36553de4

S07Funding persistence

SOL

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 00:25:44 UTC · 24h

ID af1f9a70

S08Open-interest anomaly

SOL

match no

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 06:52:24 UTC · 24h

ID 62cc58fe

S12Momentum exhaustion

SOL

match yes

predicted p 0.0%

window closed 08:03:42 UTC · 60m

ID 976195ae

S16Spread blowout

SOL

match yes

predicted p 6.0%

window closed 08:03:49 UTC · 60m

ID f1f208b6

S19Liquidation burst

SOL

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 08:03:59 UTC · 60m

ID fcf6afb6

S21Mark-slippage stress

SOL

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 08:04:04 UTC · 60m

ID 47422004

S22Liquidation side pressure

SOL

awaiting outcome

predicted p 0.0%

resolves 08:04:08 UTC · 60m

ID 4581a8d1

X05X05_vol_1m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 4.0%

window closed 08:57:14 UTC · 60m

ID ec665224

X05X05_vol_3m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 5.0%

window closed 10:32:09 UTC · 60m

ID 4fabd1dd

X05X05_vol_5m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 5.0%

window closed 10:29:36 UTC · 60m

ID 9f43d164

X05X05_vol_15m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 5.0%

window closed 10:44:19 UTC · 60m

ID a338b815

X05X05_vol_30m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 3.0%

window closed 10:54:49 UTC · 60m

ID 5c7fdbd0

X06X06_move_1m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 26.0%

window closed 09:48:27 UTC · 60m

ID c05434af

X06X06_move_3m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 18.0%

window closed 09:50:31 UTC · 60m

ID 55cbc658

X06X06_move_5m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 17.0%

window closed 09:49:13 UTC · 60m

ID af74f557

X06X06_move_15m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 20.0%

window closed 10:44:05 UTC · 60m

ID 8966ba11

X06X06_move_30m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 8.0%

window closed 10:17:12 UTC · 60m

ID 9a41d18d

X07X07_move_1m

SOL

match no

predicted p 18.0%

window closed 11:19:06 UTC · 60m

ID e42059df

X07X07_move_3m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 15.0%

window closed 11:21:15 UTC · 60m

ID 0220f072

X07X07_move_5m

SOL

match no

predicted p 13.0%

window closed 10:33:32 UTC · 60m

ID 8a273b70

X07X07_move_15m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 10.0%

window closed 10:43:44 UTC · 60m

ID 5d91650a

X07X07_move_30m

SOL

match no

predicted p 9.0%

window closed 10:58:56 UTC · 60m

ID be1c6ee8

X08X08_move_1m

SOL

match no

predicted p 16.0%

window closed 05:32:27 UTC · 60m

ID 9fd2423a

X08X08_move_3m

SOL

match no

predicted p 5.0%

window closed 23:17:04 UTC · 60m

ID 9778215b

X08X08_move_5m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 98.0%

window closed 23:04:27 UTC · 60m

ID 6d00a5f2

X08X08_move_15m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 72.0%

window closed 23:07:11 UTC · 60m

ID 9187d31e

X08X08_move_30m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 98.0%

window closed 22:20:52 UTC · 60m

ID 919ce0c7

X08X08_move_60m

SOL

match no

predicted p 96.0%

window closed 00:13:39 UTC · 60m

ID e7bfd06e

X09X09_move_1m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 72.0%

window closed 05:32:33 UTC · 60m

ID a91f8c44

X09X09_move_3m

SOL

match no

predicted p 32.0%

window closed 23:11:43 UTC · 60m

ID 6d6f91aa

X09X09_move_5m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 51.0%

window closed 23:04:32 UTC · 60m

ID a7c9720e

X09X09_move_15m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 57.0%

window closed 23:07:16 UTC · 60m

ID f7c2bd03

X09X09_move_30m

SOL

match no

predicted p 2.0%

window closed 22:19:26 UTC · 60m

ID d899e0a4

X09X09_move_60m

SOL

match yes

predicted p 2.0%

window closed 00:13:44 UTC · 60m

ID 01694ba9

A result shows the answer and whether it matched the question's prediction. Full detail — conditions, freshness and the method — is on the question's page.

Predicted vs actual

How reliable the published probabilities have been, by predicted range. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle; the measured frequencies are published only when the sample is large enough — when it is not, we say so rather than draw a chart.

Loading… · every 30s

S01Market regime

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 19 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 19 realized outcomes on file across 7 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 19 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S05Volatility expansion

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%0.0%16
115.0%too few in this band7
225.0%too few in this band2
335.0%too few in this band1
445.0%too few in this band2
555.0%too few in this band3

published at 31 outcomes; 5 of 6 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 7)

S06Funding anomaly

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%0.0%29
115.0%too few in this band1
445.0%too few in this band1

published at 31 outcomes; 2 of 3 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 1)

S07Funding persistence

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S08Open-interest anomaly

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S09Wallet accumulation

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S10Wallet distribution

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 2 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 2 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 2 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S11Transaction risk

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S12Momentum exhaustion

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 15 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 15 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 15 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S13Volume drought

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S14Liquidity migration

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S15Basis stress

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 4 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 4 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 4 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S16Spread blowout

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 15 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 15 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 15 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S17Book imbalance flip

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 12 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 12 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 12 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S18Depth withdrawal

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 12 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 12 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 12 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S19Liquidation burst

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S20Liquidation severity

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S21Mark-slippage stress

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

S22Liquidation side pressure

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 0 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 0 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 0 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X05_vol_15m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%0.0%34
225.0%too few in this band1
335.0%too few in this band1
665.0%too few in this band1
775.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band1

published at 39 outcomes; 5 of 6 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 1)

X05_vol_1m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%0.0%114
115.0%too few in this band2
225.0%too few in this band1
335.0%too few in this band2
445.0%too few in this band1
555.0%too few in this band2
665.0%too few in this band1
775.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band2

published at 126 outcomes; 8 of 9 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 2)

X05_vol_30m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 24 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 24 realized outcomes on file across 5 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 24 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X05_vol_3m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%0.0%84
115.0%too few in this band7
225.0%too few in this band1
335.0%too few in this band1
445.0%too few in this band2
665.0%too few in this band1
775.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band2

published at 99 outcomes; 7 of 8 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 7)

X05_vol_5m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%0.0%65
115.0%too few in this band4
225.0%too few in this band1
335.0%too few in this band1
445.0%too few in this band2
665.0%too few in this band1
775.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band1

published at 76 outcomes; 7 of 8 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 4)

X06_move_15m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 27 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 27 realized outcomes on file across 5 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 27 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X06_move_1m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
225.0%39.5%43
335.0%23.5%17
445.0%too few in this band1
775.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band3
995.0%too few in this band3

published at 68 outcomes; 4 of 6 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 3)

X06_move_30m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 20 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 20 realized outcomes on file across 6 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 20 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X06_move_3m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
115.0%66.7%18
225.0%14.3%28
775.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band3
995.0%too few in this band3

published at 53 outcomes; 3 of 5 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 3)

X06_move_5m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
115.0%35.7%14
225.0%25.0%20
335.0%too few in this band1
885.0%too few in this band3
995.0%too few in this band3

published at 41 outcomes; 3 of 5 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 3)

X07_move_15m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 7 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 7 realized outcomes on file across 3 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 7 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X07_move_1m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 13 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 13 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 13 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X07_move_30m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 7 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 7 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 7 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X07_move_3m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 13 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 13 realized outcomes on file across 5 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 13 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X07_move_5m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 7 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 7 realized outcomes on file across 4 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 7 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X08_move_15m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X08_move_1m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%21.4%14
115.0%too few in this band7
225.0%too few in this band3
335.0%too few in this band2
555.0%too few in this band4
665.0%too few in this band7
775.0%too few in this band9
995.0%77.3%22

published at 68 outcomes; 6 of 8 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 9)

X08_move_30m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X08_move_3m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X08_move_5m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 3 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 3 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 3 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X08_move_60m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X09_move_15m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X09_move_1m

published
rangepredicted averageactual frequencyn
05.0%20.0%20
115.0%too few in this band3
225.0%too few in this band3
335.0%too few in this band6
555.0%too few in this band4
665.0%too few in this band5
775.0%too few in this band2
885.0%too few in this band5
995.0%86.7%15

published at 63 outcomes; 7 of 9 bands hold fewer than 10 outcomes — the measured frequencies stay withheld there and the counts stand alone (the largest holds 6)

X09_move_30m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X09_move_3m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 2 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 2 realized outcomes on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 2 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X09_move_5m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 2 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 2 realized outcomes on file across 2 probability bands, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 2 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

X09_move_60m

not published

Not enough data — calibration is not published yet.

Calibration publishes only past its sample floor — 10 graded outcomes per band and 30 per question. Counts are shown as soon as outcomes settle.

measured outcomes = 1 · minimum to publish = 30 · n too small: 1 realized outcome on file across 1 probability band, and the publication floor (30) counts outcomes for the whole question — 1 of 30. Once the total clears it, a band's measured frequency still needs 10 outcomes in that band alone

Need to ask a fresh question? The dashboard and each coin's page show the exact price before anything is charged.

Self-consistency check

Readings you enter here — nothing is stored, nothing is published.

Published readings of the same state sometimes disagree. Add two or more readings and the check reports how closely they agree — the modal outcome, the agreement share, and the spread between your probabilities.

No readings yet — add at least two.