A decision record
S15 on BTC
- Question
- the absolute perp-vs-index basis at T0 is at or above 50 basis points (|perp.basis_bps| ≥ 50) — the derivative is priced at least half a percent away from spot within the 24h window, a structural divergence.
- Horizon
- 24h
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 00:06:08 UTC
- Decision
- 6c9603a2…1a794f
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 00:06:08 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 2000
- booked payment id
- 4b79721e-eb44-4c44-9e7c-4e3fa5a39cea
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- basis
Content hashes
- input
- 318291a59eb151cf…
- state
- f477684cd6fbfa8e…
- response
- 508401364a26df7d…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 6f76228dda708039f820490b7d1d5d2c51535b5faf922717ff662af27cf74dbb
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.