A decision record
S17 on BTC
- Question
- the resting-depth imbalance at T0 has the OPPOSITE sign to its value one observation earlier AND both readings are materially non-zero (|imbalance| ≥ 0.2 on each) — the book has flipped from bid-heavy to ask-heavy or vice versa within the 60m window.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 00:06:09 UTC
- Decision
- ba505496…edb49b
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 01:06:09 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 830f0958-abc6-422d-831b-6a52d2f2dc11
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- depth
Content hashes
- input
- aac9641ab161e459…
- state
- 14466b25176f2361…
- response
- 2709bdccdb2843c0…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- c51204f703413ee8170be1ef5793e22adeb1b0ad99a93a575f8b3f93879e8a70
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.