A decision record
S18 on BTC
- Question
- resting top-of-book depth at T0 has fallen by at least 30% from its prior reading (book.depth_change ≤ −0.3) AND the absolute depth is below the event’s thin-book floor (book.depth_usd below reference.thin_depth_usd) within the 60m window — liquidity has been withdrawn from a book that was already thin.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 00:06:10 UTC
- Decision
- f5158835…7d9517
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 01:06:10 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 5674e104-9ec3-4bfb-af6b-ff07ac7886bd
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- depth
- depth
- depth
Content hashes
- input
- 4fb470432e886e47…
- state
- f7ae9df864e4b7df…
- response
- 1be23ebcbbfc1afe…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- aa3f862df828f4a6068429007cb6f0d731847b70c16a5a9836548dede0e37506
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.