A decision record
S14 on BTC
- Question
- the market.liquidity.24h reading at T0 differs from its value one 24h window earlier by at least 30% (|liquidity_24h − liquidity_24h_prev| / liquidity_24h_prev ≥ 0.3) — liquidity has migrated materially, in either direction, away from its previous level within the 24h window.
- Horizon
- 24h
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 19:22:46 UTC
- Decision
- 1287c319…6f9e91
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 19:22:46 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 2000
- booked payment id
- 4bb942c0-c7f4-4486-a75a-d355665db7ca
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 67e6cce215bd2ddd…
- state
- a2716cf72b8d2d83…
- response
- 226c774699a81871…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 169754fc6e8a1eeae54f52c62195a7cc906bfa9c054c6bf34e8b80f5e7348ed6
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.