A decision record
S16 on BTC
- Question
- the top-of-book bid-ask spread at T0 is at or above 10 basis points (book.spread_bps ≥ 10) within the 60m window — the quoted market is meaningfully wider than a healthy top-of-book.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 03:55:13 UTC
- Decision
- 1a09b6ac…18b2e3
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 04:55:13 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- e2f37991-1bad-4186-b456-342bcffc1f42
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- depth
Content hashes
- input
- 89e5267b83926930…
- state
- c58d5af2935ab65e…
- response
- 87fa42387458c204…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 3ef4152331efa84660d107d0ddb052f6566e50cbfc03bc4167cb03333c27f0e4
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.