A decision record
X07 on BTC
- Question
- EXPERIMENTAL FLYWHEEL-v2 ACTION cohort (eval8h run): the W-minute move — the absolute close-to-close log return over the 3m window following T0 — reaches or exceeds k = 0.5 × the trailing-24h 1-minute baseline volatility σ̂ (realized vol of 1m log returns ending at T0, sqrt(mean(r²)) without demeaning on venue kline closes), in EITHER direction: |return over the window| ≥ k × σ̂; the event resolves at the first 1m close after the 3m window completes. k was re-fitted from the preceding action cohort's measured outcomes; on that tape roughly 33% of windows cleared the cut.
- Horizon
- 3m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 04:02:27 UTC
- Decision
- 28e18a59…ea2c91
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event obtained.settled 04:05:27 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 9003c18c-3d48-49f3-909d-9385b76e422d
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- klines
- klines
- klines
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 5cc028e0041ecda0…
- state
- 90b1083f68e1641c…
- response
- d0f36e58308271f9…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 3db54931143d690a0f0539e7565e39a9fb2d03b66f72d6c2fda82a24a087c414
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.