A decision record
S08 on BTC
- Question
- at least one 1h interval beginning within 24h of T0 has an absolute open-interest change ratio |ΔOI/OI| ≥ 3 × the trailing-24h standard deviation of 1h open-interest change ratios, with σ derived from the perp.oi_change history ending at T0.
- Horizon
- 24h
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 19:36:24 UTC
- Decision
- 314dfffb…4e4766
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event obtained.settled 15:59:36 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 2000
- booked payment id
- c13cc248-c78a-4960-8d02-d9952430c41f
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- oiSnapshot
- oiSnapshot
- oiSnapshot
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 9e259956c927b847…
- state
- b0f5ef923fae407b…
- response
- a42f2bfb8bc448ce…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- cc93d87f38c22b66a2d4a28c17d2ac49fa8b33fbad8e796e2631e192bfceaaac
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
the open-interest tape exposes snapshots, not a deep hourly history
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.