A decision record
S12 on BTC
- Question
- the 14-period relative-strength index on the serving interval is at or above 75 (or at or below 25) at T0, i.e. rsi14 ≥ 75 or rsi14 ≤ 25, AND the absolute 1-hour log return over [T0−1h, T0] is strictly SMALLER than the absolute 1-hour log return over [T0−2h, T0−1h] — momentum pressed to an extreme while the move is already fading (exhaustion); the event resolves at the first close after the 60m window completes.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 00:01:26 UTC
- Decision
- 699ad74a…0451de
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 01:01:26 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 8d948f1f-d40a-40f5-ac6d-0e48739b8cbb
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- klines
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 40a733f4f750486e…
- state
- f077664a5c9aa6ca…
- response
- 546e1a76f01b8cb0…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- dc08e55d093f32e817eb440e5dd905cca82927ab4a9809c23ec63dc714f247e8
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.