A decision record
X06 on BTC
- Question
- EXPERIMENTAL short-window ACTION cohort of the move family (evaluation run eval8h): the W-minute move — the absolute close-to-close log return over the 3m window following T0 — reaches or exceeds k = 0.5 × the trailing-24h 1-minute baseline volatility σ̂ (realized vol of 1m log returns ending at T0, sqrt(mean(r²)) without demeaning on venue kline closes), in EITHER direction: |return over the window| ≥ k × σ̂; the event resolves at the first 1m close after the 3m window completes. k was frozen from history so the event obtains in a meaningful fraction of windows.
- Horizon
- 3m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 03:57:35 UTC
- Decision
- 7580c0f0…27ef12
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event obtained.settled 04:00:35 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 729e2091-1bfe-4485-886d-14702446469e
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- klines
- klines
- klines
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 19ba1d198e884d4a…
- state
- 4ceeb94003be4f7b…
- response
- b335978503954db9…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 31e0cb763cc1c5bfc0f9e77b96d10b4e45f4eea3b98e439f407f2001818adc69
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.