A decision record
S05 on BTC
- Question
- the realized volatility of 1-minute log returns over the 60m window following T0 ≥ 1.5 × the realized volatility of 1-minute log returns over the trailing 24h ending at T0, both computed as sqrt(mean(r²)) without demeaning on venue kline closes; the event resolves at the first 1m close after the 60m window completes.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 00:01:20 UTC
- Decision
- a5a6bdd5…501633
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 01:01:20 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 440dd919-f9ec-4be3-a675-9050f0071180
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- klines
- klines
- klines
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 716198eb0da2f6aa…
- state
- 29164f531eb2a476…
- response
- 50d4793e39231a36…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 303fd431713b02a3ce3b140826230c13a9e00c2b103dbaf223330033f487dd82
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
no tape readable on any pooled asset
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.