A decision record
S16 on BTC
- Question
- the top-of-book bid-ask spread at T0 is at or above 10 basis points (book.spread_bps ≥ 10) within the 60m window — the quoted market is meaningfully wider than a healthy top-of-book.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 00:06:09 UTC
- Decision
- d088649a…1a9cae
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 01:06:09 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 8345ee37-96de-4ad0-bebd-b4630f27fa99
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- depth
Content hashes
- input
- 1788bf6bb12f0832…
- state
- 240cb53beb7b8bee…
- response
- 3f0eef3a73c38dab…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 9625cb969f3d35da31548371433b84b99cc10e2b737da17d12ae8678a9103747
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.