A decision record
X05 on BTC
- Question
- EXPERIMENTAL short-window cohort of S05_volatility_expansion (evaluation run eval8h): the realized volatility of 1-minute log returns over the 3m window following T0 ≥ 1.5 × the realized volatility of 1-minute log returns over the trailing 24h ending at T0, both computed as sqrt(mean(r²)) without demeaning on venue kline closes; the event resolves at the first 1m close after the 3m window completes.
- Horizon
- 3m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 03:57:27 UTC
- Decision
- d0baf38c…760f72
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 04:00:27 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 5f77f87d-57f4-47db-84db-43556fba9311
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- klines
- klines
- klines
- klines
Content hashes
- input
- 29377210fe5dc327…
- state
- 6c3f9ae395e3b549…
- response
- 334a55ebe32fe331…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 8144e74d7ef17738f54bef5a65e16716149c851af815f6ae3b79f765655d67dd
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
The measured base rates could not be read just now.
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.