A decision record
S06 on BTC
- Question
- the absolute perp funding rate at the venue’s first funding settlement publishing within 60m of T0 ≥ 3 × the trailing-7d median absolute funding rate; if no settlement publishes within 60m of T0 the outcome is unresolvable rather than false.
- Horizon
- 60m
- Frozen claim
- No prediction was made.
- Recorded
- 03:55:10 UTC
- Decision
- dd9c68a7…986ad4
- Status
- refused — no claim made
This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised
The event did not obtain.settled 04:00:00 UTC
Verify with this record
Settled on
- rail
- credits
- credits
- 1000
- booked payment id
- 4de68c69-ea92-4bfb-a6eb-f3096e3c0736
Tape sources
venue: hyperliquid
- funding
- fundingHistory
- fundingHistory
Content hashes
- input
- 37043ad8585b0ff3…
- state
- 2c77f6cf29058b23…
- response
- 1215650a860df864…
Record self-check
- input ok
- true
- state ok
- true
- request hash recomputed
- 48ee0b54c64281f33bdc141002ad66748bb21ab4e696449f61563146e27b4c72
- request ok
- true
Ruleset in force
version 1.0.0 · checksum 30efa65972f4f55b41c69c8d… · re-derived on this read and identical
Measured prior vs published forecast
no tape readable on any pooled asset
The prior is the tape’s base rate; the forecast is this decision’s judgment. They are compared, never merged.
What this is
A Tollbridge decision is a calibrated probabilistic estimate over a defined event and horizon — a belief statement, not a guarantee, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Confidence may be absent; a refusal is a first-class answer, not an outage. Read the full risk disclosure on the about page.