S01 on BTC

Question

exactly one regime label from {trending_up, trending_down, range_compression, range_expansion} describes the realized price action within 60m of T0, resolved on venue kline closes: trending_up ⇔ the 60m close-to-close log return ≥ +1.5 × the trailing-24h realized vol; trending_down ⇔ the 60m log return ≤ −1.5 × the trailing-24h realized vol; range_expansion ⇔ |60m log return| < 1.5 × the trailing-24h realized vol AND the realized vol of the 60m window > 1.5 × the trailing-24h realized vol; range_compression ⇔ none of the three criteria above hold. The four outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, so exactly one regime always obtains within 60m.

Horizon

60m

Frozen claim

Predicted "range_compression".

Recorded

19:36:13 UTC

Decision

e090fd06…12ab88

Status

refused — no claim made

This question was refused: this question's realized-outcome count has not cleared its publication floor — the forecast is published as experimental, not as a validated claim; no alert was raised

Predicted "range_compression"; it was "range_compression".settled 20:36:13 UTC