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Claim

CALIBRATION COUNTS ONLY IN-WINDOW OUTCOMES

Status

PROVEN_IN_CODE

Law

Publication requires the sample floor, and only in-window outcomes count — a decision's outcome counts as evidence only when it was decided inside the window and realized by its end; a pending or later-realized outcome is never evidence.

Implementation

packages/calibration look-ahead guard: outcome evidence counts only when decided_at is inside the window, the outcome is realized with realized_at at or before the window end, and the observed outcome is non-null; unresolved rows are never evidence

Test

packages/calibration + learning suites; live boards honestly empty

Limitation

floors are policy constants — changelog-tracked

Last verified

2026-10-17 · build edd6a6f (edd6a6f35dcab81b178a2e1ef1a31c2901aa67b8)

Reproduction

pnpm --filter @tollbridge/calibration test

This proof has no exact entry in the index. It is derived from the nearest claim: PUBLICATION REQUIRES SAMPLE FLOOR.