Claim
CALIBRATION COUNTS ONLY IN-WINDOW OUTCOMES
Status
PROVEN_IN_CODE
Law
Publication requires the sample floor, and only in-window outcomes count — a decision's outcome counts as evidence only when it was decided inside the window and realized by its end; a pending or later-realized outcome is never evidence.
Implementation
packages/calibration look-ahead guard: outcome evidence counts only when decided_at is inside the window, the outcome is realized with realized_at at or before the window end, and the observed outcome is non-null; unresolved rows are never evidence
Test
packages/calibration + learning suites; live boards honestly empty
Limitation
floors are policy constants — changelog-tracked
Last verified
2026-10-17 · build edd6a6f (edd6a6f35dcab81b178a2e1ef1a31c2901aa67b8)
Reproduction
pnpm --filter @tollbridge/calibration testThis proof has no exact entry in the index. It is derived from the nearest claim: PUBLICATION REQUIRES SAMPLE FLOOR.