PREDICTIONS COMMITTED BEFORE OUTCOME

A prediction is committed before its outcome — the probability and its hashes are frozen before the decision is written, and a replayed decision under a new policy reproduces the same chain.

probability+hashes frozen pre-emit; 16-field append-only ledger; DECISION_REPLAYED on hash replay under a new policy; emit_trace with sha256 receipt; journal written strictly after ledger insert

packages/decisions replay/lineage suites (decisions 481/481 at DI-hardening; current suite green)

replay depends on immutable sources for input hashes (documented per question)